David Seiders
David Seiders
component economy element engine expecting growth move negative neutral next strong year
I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
balance builders generally healthy maintained supply throughout
As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
certainly inevitable rate record return seeing sign slow terms
We're certainly seeing a record rate of return in real terms (after factoring out inflation), and there has been very little sign of deceleration. But it is probably inevitable that some of this will slow down.
bad conditions country january parts unusually weather
We had unusually bad weather in many parts of the country in December, and the conditions in January were extraordinarily warm.
delighted housing market obviously tells
I was obviously delighted to see this rebound. I think what it tells us is that the housing market is still fundamentally strong.
sting takes weather winter
Winter weather really takes the sting out of these declines.
healthy hold last pace
We can't hold at the pace we had last year. It's not going to be the end of the world -- it's going to be a simmering down to a very healthy pace.
alignment depends economy happens interest market moving rate rates
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
best certainly cooling drop expect healthy housing market months pace percent quite reason recent sales second strong third throughout year
While new-home sales have been quite strong throughout 2005, we see a cooling of the market to a healthy and more sustainable pace in the months ahead, as substantiated by recent surveys of our builders. For 2006, we expect to see a 6 percent to 7 percent drop in sales, but certainly no reason for alarm. This would make 2006 the second or third best year in housing history.
focus government looking lots meaningful report step subject trends volatility
When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.