David Seiders
David Seiders
David Seiders quotes about
april builders couple declines economy evidence highly housing including last losing momentum numbers showing shown starting supposedly survey
There's other housing numbers showing some declines in April as well. My own survey of builders has shown them losing some momentum for the last couple of months, including May. I think there's some evidence accumulating that this supposedly highly interest-sensitive part of the economy is starting to give ground.
bolster builders buyers continue decline hold housing key limit losing major market markets measures momentum move prices reason reasons
The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
balance builders generally healthy maintained supply throughout
As they generally have done throughout 2005, builders have maintained a healthy balance between supply and demand.
focus government looking lots meaningful report step subject trends volatility
When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
consistent orderly process recent
The recent stabilization is consistent with the orderly cooling-down process that NAHB has been forecasting.
alignment depends economy happens interest market moving rate rates
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
attitude consumer dropped easy equity fairly fall favorable given period savings strong tax
We've been in a period when a lot of equity has been dropped in our laps, and it has been fairly easy to get to that equity in tax favorable ways. In these circumstances, savings will fall given the strong consumer attitude in America.
decline february housing normal returned suggesting
It is a time-tested pattern. February has essentially returned to normal conditions, suggesting to me that we will see a substantial decline in housing starts.
assessment home housing overall quarter sales sector terms third
My overall assessment of the housing sector is that we probably fundamentally topped out in the third quarter of 2005 in terms of home sales and housing production.
declines followed forecasts home housing percent sales smaller starts
Our forecasts show 6 percent to 7 percent declines in home sales and single-family housing starts in 2006, followed by smaller declines in 2007.
current economic next recession
We're now in the 'middle innings' of the current economic expansion, and the next economic recession is not yet in sight.
start
When you start to see cancellations, you really get worried.