David Resler
David Resler
confidence forecast gives growth maintain momentum next pointing raise send short strong toward
It's nothing short of incredible. It's not enough to send me scurrying to raise my forecast for next year, but it's pointing toward considerable momentum going into the new year. It gives me more confidence we're going to be able to maintain strong growth in the first half.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
deal great last momentum month quarter tells
The last month of the quarter tells you a great deal about how much momentum there was in spending, and it doesn't look to me like there was that much.
certainly conditions decline drop economic employment february grave next overall report rough
Economic conditions look pretty grave right now. Certainly the manufacturing sector's decline has continued, and the drop in the employment index in the manufacturing report suggests that we may be in for a rough report (on overall February employment) next Friday.
additional bond capacity fed gets market minds nearer noticing rate rising
The bond market is noticing that the capacity usage rate is rising with this additional production, and to some people's minds that gets us nearer to the day of Fed tightening.
behavior consumer fed focused light scrutiny stock
The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.
fed hold information mean move rate
The Fed is on hold indefinitely. It doesn't mean they won't make another move this year, but there is too little information to make another rate move in September.
cut few numbers spending
It will take away from discretionary spending. It may not show up in the numbers for a few months, but it probably will cut into discretionary spending in the first part of this year.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
economists environment inventory investment pricing
Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.
employment holidays job large market swings time
Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
affect consumer gas higher prices
We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
additional contrary inflation policy threat
This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.
attitudes commit concerned consumer fact future income louder people seem speaks unwilling
People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.