David Resler
David Resler
above consistent growth overall quarter reading running
Overall the 56.7 reading for the ISM index is consistent with (economic) growth in the first quarter running above 5.0 percent.
capital contribute drop durable good growth healthy looked orders remains sector throughout trend
Overall, durable orders need to be looked at on a trend basis, and even after the drop in orders other than transportation orders ... the capital good sector remains very healthy and will contribute solidly to growth throughout 2006.
evidence expect fed inflation until
We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.
business changing cycle greatest potential rapidly revision stage
We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.
economy-and-economics fed gets might moves psychology view
There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.
benefits costs increase pressure sign wage
The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.
generally housing november pace sales speaking wonder
Generally speaking the November sales pace makes one wonder what is going on with housing starts.
although consistent economy facing growing healthy high higher majority managers purchasing reading seem signs vast
A reading as high as 58.5 is consistent with an economy that is growing at a healthy pace. We see encouraging signs of moderating prices, although the vast majority of purchasing managers seem to be facing higher prices.
anxiety balance capital given global individual integrated liquid mean nature trade
In today's integrated global economy, given the liquid nature of capital flows, an individual trade balance doesn't mean so much. A lot of the anxiety is overblown.
few money moved past price stock supply weakness
In the past few years, money supply has moved inversely with stock price movements, and that's probably where the weakness has come from.
fed hold information mean move rate
The Fed is on hold indefinitely. It doesn't mean they won't make another move this year, but there is too little information to make another rate move in September.
behavior consumer fed focused light scrutiny stock
The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.
above claims continue hovering labor market slightly steady
Claims continue hovering slightly above the 300,000 mark, implying strong, steady labor market conditions.
cut few numbers spending
It will take away from discretionary spending. It may not show up in the numbers for a few months, but it probably will cut into discretionary spending in the first part of this year.