David Resler
David Resler
cooling early fewer loans people qualify sales signs
It's the early signs of some cooling in this super-heated market. Fewer people qualify for loans and sales at these prices.
certainly conditions decline drop economic employment february grave next overall report rough
Economic conditions look pretty grave right now. Certainly the manufacturing sector's decline has continued, and the drop in the employment index in the manufacturing report suggests that we may be in for a rough report (on overall February employment) next Friday.
additional bond capacity fed gets market minds nearer noticing rate rising
The bond market is noticing that the capacity usage rate is rising with this additional production, and to some people's minds that gets us nearer to the day of Fed tightening.
convince month
It's going to take a lot more than one month to convince me we are in a worrisome trend.
booming good great growth low minimal strong wage
It's as good as it gets. You've got low inflation, minimal wage pressure, great productivity, booming growth and strong demand.
cut few numbers spending
It will take away from discretionary spending. It may not show up in the numbers for a few months, but it probably will cut into discretionary spending in the first part of this year.
continue displaced employment extra few growth job likely months people
We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.
evidence expect fed inflation until
We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.
business changing cycle greatest potential rapidly revision stage
We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.
economy-and-economics fed gets might moves psychology view
There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.
driving habits impact lasting notion seen
There is the pessimistic notion that this is not going to go away and that's going to have a more lasting impact on driving habits and behavior, I suspect, than we've seen so far.
changes economic given happens offset price random tend trends variations
This is the kind of thing that happens with economic data. In any given month, you have random variations in price trends Those random changes tend to offset each other.
although consistent economy facing growing healthy high higher majority managers purchasing reading seem signs vast
A reading as high as 58.5 is consistent with an economy that is growing at a healthy pace. We see encouraging signs of moderating prices, although the vast majority of purchasing managers seem to be facing higher prices.
additional contrary inflation policy threat
This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.