David Resler
David Resler
advances businesses capacity capital choice faster obsolete preserve rates rendered true
While it's true that capacity use rates are very low, it's also true that much of that capacity has been rendered obsolete by technological advances and that replacement of capital is faster than it used to be. So a lot of businesses may feel they have little choice but to spend, if they want to preserve their competitive edge.
evidence expect fed inflation until
We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.
business changing cycle greatest potential rapidly revision stage
We're at the stage of the business cycle where statisticians can't keep up with rapidly changing developments, especially new businesses. That's where the greatest potential for an upward revision is.
economy-and-economics fed gets might moves psychology view
There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.
capital data goods remains sector somewhat trend underlying
Overall, the data for the capital goods sector remains somewhat erratic, but the underlying trend remains upward.
above consistent growth overall quarter reading running
Overall the 56.7 reading for the ISM index is consistent with (economic) growth in the first quarter running above 5.0 percent.
capital contribute drop durable good growth healthy looked orders remains sector throughout trend
Overall, durable orders need to be looked at on a trend basis, and even after the drop in orders other than transportation orders ... the capital good sector remains very healthy and will contribute solidly to growth throughout 2006.
exactly inflation performance report several terrific
I think we can look to several more months, if not years, of this kind of performance. This is a terrific inflation report - exactly the kind of thing we all like to see.
central delays drag economy profits revival
It could be a drag on earnings...something that delays the revival of profits so central to the revival of the economy itself.
activity businesses half imagine improvement lean left numbers pointing satisfy second toward
Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
apart broad categories changed concern few inflation needs prices
I don't think there needs to be much concern about inflation right now. Apart from energy, very few of the broad categories of prices have changed much in their direction.
agenda becoming chairman data fed open terms
All of this, in terms of the FOMC becoming data dependent, comes as no surprise, and the new Fed chairman has an open agenda from which to work.
deal great last momentum month quarter tells
The last month of the quarter tells you a great deal about how much momentum there was in spending, and it doesn't look to me like there was that much.