David Resler
David Resler
additional bond capacity fed gets market minds nearer noticing rate rising
The bond market is noticing that the capacity usage rate is rising with this additional production, and to some people's minds that gets us nearer to the day of Fed tightening.
evidence expect fed inflation until
We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.
economy-and-economics fed gets might moves psychology view
There is a view out there -- and this gets more into psychology than economics, that if Fed moves 50 (basis points) now, it might be all they need to do.
fed hold information mean move rate
The Fed is on hold indefinitely. It doesn't mean they won't make another move this year, but there is too little information to make another rate move in September.
behavior consumer fed focused light scrutiny stock
The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.
agenda becoming chairman data fed open terms
All of this, in terms of the FOMC becoming data dependent, comes as no surprise, and the new Fed chairman has an open agenda from which to work.
benefits costs increase pressure sign wage
The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.
income numbers people planning
People are still planning to spend, and today's income numbers tell us that they have the wherewithal to do so.
attitudes commit concerned consumer fact future income louder people seem speaks unwilling
People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
employment holidays job large market swings time
Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
affect consumer gas higher prices
We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
activity businesses half imagine improvement lean left numbers pointing satisfy second toward
Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.