David Resler
David Resler
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We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
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The Fed is without question, especially in light of the behavior of the stock market, focused with laser-like scrutiny on consumer confidence.
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People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.
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The dollar's still strong against the Chinese currency and China continues to expand its capacity to flood the world with consumer goods.
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While it's true that capacity use rates are very low, it's also true that much of that capacity has been rendered obsolete by technological advances and that replacement of capital is faster than it used to be. So a lot of businesses may feel they have little choice but to spend, if they want to preserve their competitive edge.
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Uncertainty about the pricing environment will keep inventory investment more disappointing than some other economists expect.
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Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
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Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
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Nevertheless, money supply contractions are often harbingers of bad times ahead, and if this lasts much longer, people will get more concerned.
increase
One of these days, we're going to see an increase in non-farm payrolls for the manufacturing sector.
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Since the end of January, things seem to have hit a wall across a wide array of economic indicators. This confirms what all that anecdotal evidence and factual reports have been telling us.
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I think we can look to several more months, if not years, of this kind of performance. This is a terrific inflation report - exactly the kind of thing we all like to see.
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It could be a drag on earnings...something that delays the revival of profits so central to the revival of the economy itself.
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We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.