David Resler
David Resler
evidence expect fed inflation until
We still have yet to see much evidence that any of this is translating into an inflation threat. Until it does, I don't expect the Fed to move.
additional contrary inflation policy threat
This is not a policy of indifference. This is a policy of additional restraint. Contrary to what they say, they think the inflation threat is graver than the threat to growth.
exactly inflation performance report several terrific
I think we can look to several more months, if not years, of this kind of performance. This is a terrific inflation report - exactly the kind of thing we all like to see.
apart broad categories changed concern few inflation needs prices
I don't think there needs to be much concern about inflation right now. Apart from energy, very few of the broad categories of prices have changed much in their direction.
benefits costs increase pressure sign wage
The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.
income numbers people planning
People are still planning to spend, and today's income numbers tell us that they have the wherewithal to do so.
attitudes commit concerned consumer fact future income louder people seem speaks unwilling
People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
employment holidays job large market swings time
Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
affect consumer gas higher prices
We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
activity businesses half imagine improvement lean left numbers pointing satisfy second toward
Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
bad lasts money people supply
Nevertheless, money supply contractions are often harbingers of bad times ahead, and if this lasts much longer, people will get more concerned.
increase
One of these days, we're going to see an increase in non-farm payrolls for the manufacturing sector.