David Resler
David Resler
confidence forecast gives growth maintain momentum next pointing raise send short strong toward
It's nothing short of incredible. It's not enough to send me scurrying to raise my forecast for next year, but it's pointing toward considerable momentum going into the new year. It gives me more confidence we're going to be able to maintain strong growth in the first half.
booming good great growth low minimal strong wage
It's as good as it gets. You've got low inflation, minimal wage pressure, great productivity, booming growth and strong demand.
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We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.
above consistent growth overall quarter reading running
Overall the 56.7 reading for the ISM index is consistent with (economic) growth in the first quarter running above 5.0 percent.
capital contribute drop durable good growth healthy looked orders remains sector throughout trend
Overall, durable orders need to be looked at on a trend basis, and even after the drop in orders other than transportation orders ... the capital good sector remains very healthy and will contribute solidly to growth throughout 2006.
benefits costs increase pressure sign wage
The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.
income numbers people planning
People are still planning to spend, and today's income numbers tell us that they have the wherewithal to do so.
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People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
employment holidays job large market swings time
Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
affect consumer gas higher prices
We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
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We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
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Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
bad lasts money people supply
Nevertheless, money supply contractions are often harbingers of bad times ahead, and if this lasts much longer, people will get more concerned.