Bruce Steinberg
Bruce Steinberg
alan assuming believe benefits burning economy economy-and-economics extremely further greenspan impact optimistic slowing
He is extremely optimistic on technology, its impact on productivity and the benefits it has to our economy. We believe Alan Greenspan does not see any burning need to further tighten policy, assuming the economy is slowing as it has been indicating so far.
capital data indication provides quite report second spending state
This report provides the first indication of the state of capital spending in the second quarter, and the data were quite strong.
believe data indicate last miracle recent recently revised talk
There has been talk recently about how, because productivity was revised down last year, it would belie the productivity miracle of the recent past. We believe today's data indicate that this is not happening.
assume begin half happen next
We assume that will begin to happen during the first half of next year.
basis believe climax continue cut fed market past risk selling
We believe if the Fed does not cut by 75 basis points, there is a risk the market would be disappointed. If the Fed does cut by 75 basis points, we do not think that the selling climax would continue past that point.
pay
Between you and me, you want to be the only one getting the pay raise, and not everyone else.
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As the job market gradually improves, it should easily support consumer-spending gains of at least 3.5 percent this year.
easily headed job loss october rate
October job loss could easily be worse. The unemployment rate is headed for 6 percent, in our view.
ease late soon
I think they may ease as soon as late January.
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Larry Summers is a very capable guy. He's been Rubin's deputy for the last five years or so, and Rubin has been grooming him to take on the responsibilities of being the Treasury secretary.
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Rising oil prices are the biggest risk to what is otherwise shaping up as a robust recovery. Every $1 increase in the price of oil drains about $5 billion from the U.S. economy, if sustained for a year.
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Robust growth probably won't get going until the second half of the year. The first tightening move by the Fed is unlikely to occur until late summer at the very soonest.
capital economy expect far fed half justify near next recovery remain signs soft spending turn until
For recovery to have any real oomph, capital spending will need to rebound. So far there are no signs of that, and we don't expect a turn until the first half of next year. So in the near term, the economy will probably remain soft enough to justify at least one more Fed move.
entirely initial rate rises
If the unemployment rate rises through July, as is entirely possible, the initial tightening will take place during the fall.