Brian Bethune
Brian Bethune
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The budget deficit is like gaining weight. You are not really aware of it until at some point, all of a sudden you can't do what you want to do because you are heavier. Interest rates go up and slow things down. Then you go to your check up and the doctor tells you you got to lose 25 pounds.
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The major markets overseas - Europe, Japan and Asia - have fairly solid underlying momentum. Japan is certainly improving and Europe is more like the Queen Elizabeth slowly turning around.
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We saw a big rebound in corporate profits and that's a good signal for continued business investment. That generally leads to hiring, which will help keep consumption going.
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There are reports of solid underlying demand for 30-year bonds from pension funds and insurance companies.
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The gradual cooling off of the housing market will be welcome news at the Federal Reserve.
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While the record drop in the top level index spells welcome relief from the painful post-hurricane energy price spikes in September, continued pressure on the core index over the next several months will keep the Federal Reserve vigilant on the inflation watch.
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What this tells us in terms of the fundamentals is the road looks fine.
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We'll have very solid overall job gains that will punctuate the start of more normal activity in terms of employment,
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Maybe we should all be praying for a warm winter because that might ease the pain.
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New auctions will satisfy an unusual coincidence of needs on the supply and demand side of the fixed-income debt markets.
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Business investment is going to be one of the principal drivers of growth in 2006. The consumer will still be there ... (but) certainly won't be as ebullient as the last four years.
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Mortgage purchase applications continue to track downwards, suggesting that most of the expected pop in housing sales in January was weather-related.
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Recoveries in Europe and Japan are gaining momentum. This should provide the underpinnings for respectable growth in exports.
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That was a gust of wind in the spinnaker.