Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
confusion determine economy growth whether year
It doesn't really determine that this year is going to be a down year. What it really indicates is the confusion over whether we're in a growth economy or not.
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I don't think there's anything that will deter the Fed from lowering interest rates in August. I think the story is going to be the continuing belief that there is a mixed story on Wall Street that has been brought out, in terms of technology. The visibility story is changing somewhat to the 'we see the bottom in sight' scenario.
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The markets are really going to be determined by what the Fed has to say. We'll be looking for more definitive talk from the Federal government and (Alan) Greenspan to get some indication of what the Fed is really thinking.
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The PPI number on Friday gave us a little bit of a hint that there most likely will be a hike on August 24th, but that'll be it,
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When you have a major company like GE boosting its dividend and announcing a big buyback, that's very positive for corporate America,
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Without having that constant barrage of negative news, there is the opportunity for the market to exhibit some strength.
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Trying to pick a trend in this market is impossible. Friday's action was anemic, and today there's anticipation of a stronger earnings season. Other than short-term traders, it's hard to negotiate a market that is so narrow in range. We're at least stable for now, but there hasn't been a trend for over a month.
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With an expected quarter percent rise, the commentary seems a little more hawkish than expected.
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You have to ignore that because they're of course going to be bad, ... You have to look at earnings potential, and cyclicality stocks, I'll go for International Paper.
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You have a market on eggshells. The stories that make the rounds are being treated as sell first and then worry about whether they're true.
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
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Better-than-expected LEI implies a strong economy. It also implies higher interest rates.
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Even though it's a tough environment for travel related stocks, the catalyst for American Express is going to be the ruling against Visa and MasterCard. It's a very significant positive.
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Either you believe the markets or so don't believe the markets. There's no in-between here. The bulls are very vigorous and the bears are very vigorous.