Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
economy slightly ticking weaker
It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
august backlash durable goods july past pattern relatively seen september strong weak
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.
below headline jobs looking maybe numbers obviously plenty scratch sector slightly stronger weakness
Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
euro led move skeptical upside weakness
The euro led the move ... and the dollar's weakness is broad-based, which is important but I'm skeptical that we're going to get a lot of (euro) upside here.
bank crowded japan
The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'
bush drawing eventually market might move quite talk towards wall
There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
again appears bond bullish consistent data generating market reaction soft strong
Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
certainly equation far future good goods inflation pipeline side sign
It's certainly a good sign as far as future pipeline inflation is concerned, ... The goods side of the inflation equation is very encouraging.