Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
economy slightly ticking weaker
It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along.
august backlash durable goods july past pattern relatively seen september strong weak
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.
below headline jobs looking maybe numbers obviously plenty scratch sector slightly stronger weakness
Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
euro led move skeptical upside weakness
The euro led the move ... and the dollar's weakness is broad-based, which is important but I'm skeptical that we're going to get a lot of (euro) upside here.
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.