Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
above economy head higher hikes inflation makers offset oil peek policy pressures price raising reacting situation slow starting time until
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
deficit early fits peaked signs suggest views
It is too early to suggest the deficit has peaked but it fits with Greenspan's views of the early signs of stabilization,
bank crowded japan
The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'
erratic late market number tough trade
It's been such an erratic number of late that it's pretty tough for the market to trade on it,
economy slightly ticking weaker
It was slightly weaker than expectations, but manufacturing is still healthy. It confirms that the economy is still ticking along.
certainly equation far future good goods inflation pipeline side sign
It's certainly a good sign as far as future pipeline inflation is concerned, ... The goods side of the inflation equation is very encouraging.
black carries inflation less likely policy problem risk targeting
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.
change generate language likely pace slower speeding
We read any change in language as more likely to generate a slower pace of tightening than a speeding up in tightening to 50-basis-point increments.
bond cheerful market peculiar plenty seem situation
We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
clear inflation signals
we still don't have any clear signals that inflation is on the way up.
impending indicative orders overall recovery south trend
The overall trend in orders is going to be south over time, ... I wouldn't use this as indicative of some impending recovery in the manufacturing sector.
data edge fed fodder provides
The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.