Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
erratic late market number tough trade
It's been such an erratic number of late that it's pretty tough for the market to trade on it,
bond cheerful market peculiar plenty seem situation
We have a peculiar situation in which the shoppers seem to feel there is plenty to be cheerful about but the bond market is much more cautious.
again december evidence extent judging labor market might past
The labor market has not accelerated to the extent one might expect, judging from past cycles, and we probably won't see evidence of it again in the December numbers.
bush drawing eventually market might move quite talk towards wall
There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
again appears bond bullish consistent data generating market reaction soft strong
Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
focus market price worth
The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve.
comforting dollar feels market meaningful months risk takes three
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.