Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
clearly consistent data decline employment meaningful michigan poor trends
Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
data edge fed fodder provides
The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.
certainly data encourage fed views
The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.
correct data encourage fed inflation looks tend views
The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.
again appears bond bullish consistent data generating market reaction soft strong
Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.