Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.
bullets cut fed fire gut left next percentage says therefore
My gut says the Fed doesn't have too many bullets left to fire, and therefore they have to use them sparingly, and we'll see a (quarter percentage point) cut at the next meeting.
data direction fed funds peak trying weaker work
We're trying to feel out where's the peak in the Fed funds rate. The data has tended to work in the direction of a weaker dollar.
data edge fed fodder provides
The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.
certainly data encourage fed views
The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.
correct data encourage fed inflation looks tend views
The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.
asset associated clearly concerned credit cycle decline fed low outgoing prices prospect risk
As outgoing Fed chairman, he's clearly concerned about the asset cycle and the prospect the low concern on credit risk is going to be associated with a decline in asset prices down the track,
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.