Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
below headline jobs looking maybe numbers obviously plenty scratch sector slightly stronger weakness
Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
believe giving people pressure selling stand underlying
I don't think people want to stand in the way of this even if they believe there's underlying value. With equities giving it a kick, you're getting more selling pressure as well.
comments economy included none range
(Greenspan's) comments on the economy regaining traction included a range of examples, but all of them have caveats attached, and none are that convincing,
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
bought found good inflation lucky numbers officials position rate time
I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
impression worst
All in all this is very much second-tier data, but the overriding impression is that any slowdown is at worst modest,
earnings fear front numbers obviously running soft sway wage
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.
comforting dollar feels market meaningful months risk takes three
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.
euro led move skeptical upside weakness
The euro led the move ... and the dollar's weakness is broad-based, which is important but I'm skeptical that we're going to get a lot of (euro) upside here.
focus market price worth
The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve.
economy energy generally reasons slowing stimulus variety wearing wide
The economy is generally slowing for a wide variety of reasons -- energy is one, but also the stimulus is wearing off.