Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
again december evidence extent judging labor market might past
The labor market has not accelerated to the extent one might expect, judging from past cycles, and we probably won't see evidence of it again in the December numbers.
bush drawing eventually market might move quite talk towards wall
There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
again appears bond bullish consistent data generating market reaction soft strong
Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.
confidence consumer energy housing hurting time
Housing may be topping at the same time as consumer confidence is hurting from energy prices.
change changes measured weak
For the Fed, I don't think it changes much. It's not weak enough that it would change their measured tightening path.
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
best clearly close economy grew second zero
In the aggregate, the economy has clearly stalled, and at best grew close to zero in the second quarter,
economy energy generally reasons slowing stimulus variety wearing wide
The economy is generally slowing for a wide variety of reasons -- energy is one, but also the stimulus is wearing off.
euro led move skeptical upside weakness
The euro led the move ... and the dollar's weakness is broad-based, which is important but I'm skeptical that we're going to get a lot of (euro) upside here.
impression worst
All in all this is very much second-tier data, but the overriding impression is that any slowdown is at worst modest,
earnings fear front numbers obviously running soft sway wage
The hourly earnings numbers are soft obviously in January, but if you look at it on a three-month trend, in fact, you still find hourly earnings running at something like a 5-percent annualized rate. So I don't think that's going to sway the Fed's fear on the wage front completely.
focus market price worth
The market will focus the most on this deflator number, and it is worth 1/32nd or 2/32nds (in price fall) on the back end of the curve.
comforting dollar feels market meaningful months risk takes three
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.