Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
comments dollar reaction terribly
There was not much of a dollar reaction because her comments were not terribly fresh.
comforting dollar feels market meaningful months risk takes three
The market feels that there's probably three months to play with before the risk of any meaningful tightening takes place. That's been comforting for those who are dollar bullish.
bond broader confused cross influences stick trend view
These cross influences are confused enough that one has to stick with the broader trend that we still view as bond negative.
caught market minutes somewhat
These minutes have caught the market somewhat off-guard,
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
adding consumer either energy far goods producer quite rather sign
Quite clearly, energy is still adding to consumer prices, but everything else is rather subdued, ... As far as goods are concerned, either at the consumer or producer level, their is no sign of inflation.
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
believe giving people pressure selling stand underlying
I don't think people want to stand in the way of this even if they believe there's underlying value. With equities giving it a kick, you're getting more selling pressure as well.
clearly consistent data decline employment meaningful michigan poor trends
Poor employment trends clearly are weighing on sentiment, ... The (IBD) data is consistent with a meaningful decline in the Michigan survey.
above consistent economic growth numbers payroll
Non-farm payroll numbers of over 300,000 are pretty much consistent with economic growth of about 4 percent, (and) that's way above trend,
bond concern fed growth happened higher imposed inflation lower setting terms top weaker
My concern is that what's happened here is that inflation is higher than the Fed anticipated. On top of that, the kind of tightening already imposed by the markets, in terms of lower equities and higher bond yields, is setting up weaker growth in 2005.