Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
black carries inflation less likely policy problem risk targeting
The problem with inflation targeting is that it carries with it a risk of less flexibility at times, and that could be problematical. But it also makes policy less of a black box, so policy is likely to be more transparent.
bank crowded japan
The Bank of Japan has effectively crowded out 'crowding out,'
bush drawing eventually market might move quite talk towards wall
There's talk Bush might actually eventually move towards drawing in someone from Wall Street, which the market might quite like really.
asset caught changed fairly far fed felt market markets obvious reaction sharp shock testimony value
There was always going to be some shock value when the Fed changed 'the considerable period' statement, but we had always felt that the change would come when it was fairly obvious that it should, and when the Fed had softened the blow, by alerting the market to such a change, ... As it was, there was no such warning, and the sharp market reaction is testimony to just how far it caught asset markets 'off-side.'
again appears bond bullish consistent data generating market reaction soft strong
Once again soft data appears to be generating more reaction in the bond market than strong data -- consistent with the bullish undertone.
bond chairman fed happy market
The Fed Chairman would be very happy if the bond market did some of the tightening for him,
certainly equation far future good goods inflation pipeline side sign
It's certainly a good sign as far as future pipeline inflation is concerned, ... The goods side of the inflation equation is very encouraging.
again december evidence extent judging labor market might past
The labor market has not accelerated to the extent one might expect, judging from past cycles, and we probably won't see evidence of it again in the December numbers.
bond higher might pattern provide resolved terms trading
To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields,
above economy head higher hikes inflation makers offset oil peek policy pressures price raising reacting situation slow starting time until
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.
below data decent dominated employment october rising services since soft tend third time trends weakness
Employment slipped for the third time since November, and is now back below October levels, ... Since weakness in services employment has dominated the soft employment trends in this cycle, this data will tend to deflate rising expectations of a decent payrolls number.
assessment doubt impact profound region risk
There should be no doubt that instability in the region should have a profound impact on the long-term risk assessment globally.
broader certainly picture slowing
The broader picture is there's some slowing in housing. It's certainly dollar-negative news.
asset associated clearly concerned credit cycle decline fed low outgoing prices prospect risk
As outgoing Fed chairman, he's clearly concerned about the asset cycle and the prospect the low concern on credit risk is going to be associated with a decline in asset prices down the track,