William Sullivan
William Sullivan
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Today the collective wisdom is that the economy will improve in the not-too-distant future, and that's hostile for bonds because it suggests that the Fed is done easing monetary policy and that financial markets may confront some interest-rate pressures as the economy improves and borrowing re-accelerates.
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To have this quick of a reaction in terms of rate cuts, ... suggests that the Fed was seeing crunch-like conditions.
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The real worry is that this report will limit the degree of Federal Reserve easing down the pike.
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The data will generate a debate at the Fed about how many more rate hikes there will be.
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The bottom line message is that the labor market activity remains robust, and that's not the environment that would suggest a need for a Fed rate cut.
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This is going to keep the Fed on hold.
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It is my belief that the Fed is targeting the equity markets with this more aggressive provision of liquidity, ... The Fed wants the stock market to do some of the heavy lifting to get this economy moving.
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I get the impression he is building the market up to expect a rate hike at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
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If the unemployment rate is weak, look for the Fed to cut interest rates by a full 50 basis points (half a percentage point).
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The Fed is continuing to study credit tea leaves, and perhaps they sense there's more stresses out there and they want to be in front of that by providing liquidity and communicating their support to the marketplace,
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The Fed has more or less backed away from this pre-emptive approach that they talked so much about in recent months. In fact, the Senate could say that Alan Greenspan & Co. caved in to the political criticism on Capitol Hill that we saw emanate over the last few weeks,
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The retrenchment in equities will undoubtedly affect the economy later in the year, ... This is not just a correction, it's an economic event that could affect consumer confidence and consumer spending down the road, leading to a more pronounced slowdown than the Fed is currently factoring in.
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The fear here is the economy is overheating. And this points to a Federal Reserve with a much tighter monetary policy.
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What that suggests is that the recovery in corporate profits may not be as strong as expected.