William Sullivan
William Sullivan
glow inflation month negative
We're basking in the glow of negative inflation in the month of November.
bonds borrowing collective confront easing economy fed financial hostile improve improves markets monetary policy pressures today wisdom
Today the collective wisdom is that the economy will improve in the not-too-distant future, and that's hostile for bonds because it suggests that the Fed is done easing monetary policy and that financial markets may confront some interest-rate pressures as the economy improves and borrowing re-accelerates.
associated average early eliminated february gains industrial jones supply support three
We're down for three reasons. One, we still have the overhang of supply associated with the February refunding auctions, which were not distributed that well, ... Two, the early gains in the Dow Jones industrial average have eliminated some support for Treasury.
might serious
We don't know how serious it might be. Such disclosures are always problematic.
data debate fed generate hikes
The data will generate a debate at the Fed about how many more rate hikes there will be.
expensive holding money onto people starting
It was a little disappointing, but it is so expensive that there may be a lot of people holding onto their money for the 10-year and 30-year starting tomorrow.
bonds buy close data dominant environment improvement market sees sell stock view
The stock market sees these data as representing an end to the recessionary environment and signaling some improvement in the not-too-distant future. For now, the dominant view is that this is the close on the 2001 recession, so you sell bonds to buy stocks.
deck either grabbed heard hit noise pulled seconds sudden telling three ticket
I heard like a 'pop-pop noise and all of a sudden about three seconds later, the ticket counters were telling us to either hit the deck or they grabbed us and pulled us into the back room.
account afraid fall foreign investors leadership puts rule sharp taking view
I'm afraid we're not taking account of how foreign investors view this. That puts U.S. leadership at risk. I wouldn't rule out a sharp fall in the dollar.
against backdrop bit expect inflation market observers soft stronger treasury
Inflation was probably a little bit stronger than expected, so against that backdrop we don't expect a substantial Treasury market rally. We may get some short-covering, but many observers will sense that this is a soft patch.
change last monetary policy
indicating this may be the last change in monetary policy for a while.
affect confidence consumer currently economic economy event fed later leading spending
The retrenchment in equities will undoubtedly affect the economy later in the year, ... This is not just a correction, it's an economic event that could affect consumer confidence and consumer spending down the road, leading to a more pronounced slowdown than the Fed is currently factoring in.
building calendar corporate dried issue kinds
The new issue calendar had dried up for all kinds of issuers. But now, the corporate calendar is building again.
building calendar corporate dried issue kinds
The new issue calendar had dried up for all kinds of issuers, ... But now, the corporate calendar is building again.