William Sullivan
William Sullivan
bond downward move seen unusual
We have seen what is historically very unusual downward move on bond prices.
bonds borrowing collective confront easing economy fed financial hostile improve improves markets monetary policy pressures today wisdom
Today the collective wisdom is that the economy will improve in the not-too-distant future, and that's hostile for bonds because it suggests that the Fed is done easing monetary policy and that financial markets may confront some interest-rate pressures as the economy improves and borrowing re-accelerates.
bonds buy close data dominant environment improvement market sees sell stock view
The stock market sees these data as representing an end to the recessionary environment and signaling some improvement in the not-too-distant future. For now, the dominant view is that this is the close on the 2001 recession, so you sell bonds to buy stocks.
bonds corporate filling pave rally
Corporate bonds are filling the void, to some degree. But this does not pave the way to a rally in bonds.
ability bonds influence move
The big influence on bonds is stocks' ability to move higher,
brighter common economic economy europe fortunes help higher japan move people rates reduce seeing slow theme though
There is a common theme that economic fortunes look brighter in Japan and continental Europe than they do in the U.S., ... Even though higher rates should help the currency, they haven't because most people are seeing that as the Fed's move to slow the economy and reduce growth.
diminished economy evidence knew pressures price statistics
We knew the economy slowed down, and there was evidence from some of the monthly price statistics that inflationary pressures diminished during the period.
fed quick rate reaction seeing terms
To have this quick of a reaction in terms of rate cuts, ... suggests that the Fed was seeing crunch-like conditions.
data employment expected november reacting somewhat stronger tenor
What we are reacting to is the somewhat stronger than expected tenor in the November employment data - that's it in a nutshell.
corporate profits recovery strong
What that suggests is that the recovery in corporate profits may not be as strong as expected.
degree easing federal limit report reserve worry
The real worry is that this report will limit the degree of Federal Reserve easing down the pike.
calls level margin people
There are a lot of people who are tremendously overextended and we're now getting down to a level to where these margin calls are massive, ... The calls are going out right now.
additional hikes labor market mean rate spare
If we do see additional absorption of spare labor market capacity, that could mean more rate hikes through the summer.
cut rates twice
I look for them to cut rates at least once or twice more this year.