William Sullivan
William Sullivan
ability bonds influence move
The big influence on bonds is stocks' ability to move higher,
bonds corporate filling pave rally
Corporate bonds are filling the void, to some degree. But this does not pave the way to a rally in bonds.
bonds buy close data dominant environment improvement market sees sell stock view
The stock market sees these data as representing an end to the recessionary environment and signaling some improvement in the not-too-distant future. For now, the dominant view is that this is the close on the 2001 recession, so you sell bonds to buy stocks.
bond downward move seen unusual
We have seen what is historically very unusual downward move on bond prices.
bonds borrowing collective confront easing economy fed financial hostile improve improves markets monetary policy pressures today wisdom
Today the collective wisdom is that the economy will improve in the not-too-distant future, and that's hostile for bonds because it suggests that the Fed is done easing monetary policy and that financial markets may confront some interest-rate pressures as the economy improves and borrowing re-accelerates.
against backdrop bit expect inflation market observers soft stronger treasury
Inflation was probably a little bit stronger than expected, so against that backdrop we don't expect a substantial Treasury market rally. We may get some short-covering, but many observers will sense that this is a soft patch.
change last monetary policy
indicating this may be the last change in monetary policy for a while.
benign consumers context declining doubt energy food good level news performance retail wash wholesale
The benign performance at the wholesale level may not necessarily wash through at the retail level. But there is no doubt that there is good news for U.S. consumers in the context of declining food and energy prices.
affect confidence consumer currently economic economy event fed later leading spending
The retrenchment in equities will undoubtedly affect the economy later in the year, ... This is not just a correction, it's an economic event that could affect consumer confidence and consumer spending down the road, leading to a more pronounced slowdown than the Fed is currently factoring in.
building calendar corporate dried issue kinds
The new issue calendar had dried up for all kinds of issuers. But now, the corporate calendar is building again.
building calendar corporate dried issue kinds
The new issue calendar had dried up for all kinds of issuers, ... But now, the corporate calendar is building again.
economy fear federal monetary points reserve
The fear here is the economy is overheating. And this points to a Federal Reserve with a much tighter monetary policy.
account afraid fall foreign investors leadership puts rule sharp taking view
I'm afraid we're not taking account of how foreign investors view this. That puts U.S. leadership at risk. I wouldn't rule out a sharp fall in the dollar.
accounting
It's impressive, but it's probably technical. We still have these accounting questions.