Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
business creating expect growth half labor market past permanent pickup second sustained until
The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half? For that, two things have to happen: we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end.
convincing early expect half improvement indicate labor market neutral next numbers production risks second suspect
I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.
across almost basis daily economy indicative number recovery seeing seen signs trade turned
We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner.
I think if you take those two things together, there is some hope.
anecdotal book confirm economic evidence reports seems
The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.
alan cut greenspan guess inflation last point quarter rate seeing
I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.
accustomed increases message point strong
We are not going to see the strong increases in productivity that we've become accustomed to and I think we're at that point now and that's the message in these numbers.
agree forecasts
We'll probably have a moderate-paced recovery. I couldn't agree more with the Greenspan's forecasts that it would be a sub-par recovery.
causing changes clear cut helpful labor lower market rates structural true unclear
It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.
past recessions room
They've got more room to move, and they will move. That's what they've always done in past recessions and what they'll do again.
election elections moved sidelines sit soon
They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.
amount appears fairly fiscal means recession stimulus
There's already a lot of stimulus in the pipeline, and there's more to come. So there appears to be an ever-growing amount of fiscal stimulus, which means any recession will be fairly shallow.
business convinced data household labor market others picks quite reflected strong survey turning workers
At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.
decline four last third
This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising.