Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
absent business cycle external hiring income increase increasing inventory length means support temporary week work
To me, the business cycle is working as it always does, absent an external shock. Inventory liquidation means firms have to increase production, and they're already doing that. They're also increasing the length of the work week and hiring temporary workers. All these things support income and spending.
business creating expect growth half labor market past permanent pickup second sustained until
The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half? For that, two things have to happen: we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end.
businesses economic fourth growth levels losing otherwise risk
Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.
business convinced data household labor market others picks quite reflected strong survey turning workers
At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.
bay businesses growth helps hire inflation slower
Productivity growth helps keep inflation at bay and allows real incomes to grow, but it makes businesses even slower to hire than usual.
bottom corporate directly good means news plus recovery spending
The good news is that this is going to go directly to the corporate bottom line. That's a real plus for profits, which means a real plus for corporate spending and the recovery going forward.
below capital continued cost equipment good improve invest past reason technology year
Firms in the past year have continued to invest in equipment and technology to improve productivity. And with good reason -- the cost of capital is below the cost of labor.
couple experience given goods maintain market past terms
Firms are still pretty cautious, given the experience of the past couple of years. But if firms are going to maintain market share, they will have to be competitive in terms of the goods they offer.
I think if you take those two things together, there is some hope.
anecdotal book confirm economic evidence reports seems
The anecdotal evidence of the beige book seems to confirm what all these economic reports have been saying.
alan cut greenspan guess inflation last point quarter rate seeing
I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.
came consumers hanging higher robust showing
It came in a little higher than expected, but I take it as more of the same -- consumers are hanging in, but they're not showing robust enthusiasm.
anyone decline genuine
It is a genuine shocker... I don't think anyone anticipated a decline of this magnitude.
confronted cut desired extended external financial global pat period rather shock stance stand time unless
I think their desired stance is to stand pat for an extended period of time rather than cut rates, unless they are confronted with an external shock to the global financial system.