Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
business convinced data household labor market others picks quite reflected strong survey turning workers
At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.
causing changes clear cut helpful labor lower market rates structural true unclear
It's unclear what lower rates would do. If it's really true that productivity and structural changes are causing labor market weakness, it's not clear that another cut in rates would be helpful to the labor market.
election elections moved sidelines sit soon
They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.
bay businesses growth helps hire inflation slower
Productivity growth helps keep inflation at bay and allows real incomes to grow, but it makes businesses even slower to hire than usual.
corporate costs decline economy either labor prices profits rise wage
Productivity always slows as the economy slows. If labor and wage costs are still on the rise and productivity slows, either corporate profits decline or prices increase.
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He's instantly recognizable in financial circles and has international stature.
bond close expectation few given lows rebound recent sharp
You can't read too much into any one number, but it's a sharp rebound from the lows of October. Given that and a few other things, the bond market's more recent expectation is that the Fed, if it's not finished, is close to being finished.