Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
across alan anyone areas best economy fearful greenspan guess happen insurance point policy running seen taking weakness
I don't think anyone has seen this happen so quickly. I don't think Alan Greenspan has seen it happen so quickly. So he's taking out an insurance policy for himself. My best guess is that they (The Fed) are running scared. At this point we've seen such pronounced weakness across all areas of the economy that I think they're fearful this downturn is going to be very different than any in the past.
apt close consumer consumers deflation expect japanese nowhere prices spiral
We're nowhere close to the Japanese example. When you have real deflation as they have in Japan, consumers expect prices to be lower, and they defer purchases, which makes the spiral worse. That's not an apt description of what the American consumer has been doing.
convincing early expect half improvement indicate labor market neutral next numbers production risks second suspect
I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.
across almost basis daily economy indicative number recovery seeing seen signs trade turned
We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner.
agree forecasts
We'll probably have a moderate-paced recovery. I couldn't agree more with the Greenspan's forecasts that it would be a sub-par recovery.
accustomed increases message point strong
We are not going to see the strong increases in productivity that we've become accustomed to and I think we're at that point now and that's the message in these numbers.
business creating expect growth half labor market past permanent pickup second sustained until
The second half will show some better growth. Will that be sustained past the second half? For that, two things have to happen: we have to see a pickup in business spending, and the labor market has to stabilize and improve, creating permanent employment. We don't expect to see that until year-end.
accounts auto certainly consumers entirely fourth giving growth helpful hung incentives ongoing outside remember strength
Certainly those auto incentives were helpful in giving us that growth in the fourth quarter. But we have to remember that even outside of autos, the consumers have really hung in there. I don't think it's entirely a fluke. I don't think it accounts for the ongoing strength of the consumer.
businesses economic fourth growth levels losing otherwise risk
Inventories are at rock-bottom levels -- even if economic growth slows in the fourth quarter, those inventories will have to be rebuilt, otherwise businesses risk losing business.
decline four last third
This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising.
almost balance bound increase last modest move past pickup production
This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.
anytime events future plan
They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.
amount appears fairly fiscal means recession stimulus
There's already a lot of stimulus in the pipeline, and there's more to come. So there appears to be an ever-growing amount of fiscal stimulus, which means any recession will be fairly shallow.
past recessions room
They've got more room to move, and they will move. That's what they've always done in past recessions and what they'll do again.