Wayne Ayers
Wayne Ayers
across almost basis daily economy indicative number recovery seeing seen signs trade turned
We're seeing on an almost daily basis signs across all sectors that this recovery is for real, and this trade number is confirmation of that. We've seen a pick-up in imports, indicative that the economy has turned the corner.
anyone decline genuine
It is a genuine shocker... I don't think anyone anticipated a decline of this magnitude.
confronted cut desired extended external financial global pat period rather shock stance stand time unless
I think their desired stance is to stand pat for an extended period of time rather than cut rates, unless they are confronted with an external shock to the global financial system.
accustomed increases message point strong
We are not going to see the strong increases in productivity that we've become accustomed to and I think we're at that point now and that's the message in these numbers.
anytime events future plan
They're acknowledging reality. They're saying, 'We'll do what we have to do if future events warrant,' but I still don't think they plan on doing anything anytime soon.
amount appears fairly fiscal means recession stimulus
There's already a lot of stimulus in the pipeline, and there's more to come. So there appears to be an ever-growing amount of fiscal stimulus, which means any recession will be fairly shallow.
business convinced data household labor market others picks quite reflected strong survey turning workers
At labor market turning points, the household survey does better because it picks up self-employed workers and others not reflected in the business survey. But I'm still not convinced the labor market is quite as strong as the household data say it is.
election elections moved sidelines sit soon
They'd just as soon sit on the sidelines in an election year, but they will do what they have to do, and they have moved in other election seasons.
decline four last third
This is the third decline in the last four months. Again, it's worrisome, but not surprising.
almost balance bound increase last modest move past pickup production
This liquidation has been so sharp, so severe, not just in this last quarter, but over the past year, that even with a modest pickup in demand, production is almost bound to increase as we move through the balance of this year.
against argue aside deficits
I think you would be hard-pressed to find an economist, aside from the supply-siders, who would argue against the idea that deficits matter.
consumer continues despite economy fears general hang low message savings
I think the general message here is that despite the fears about a low savings rate, the consumer continues to hang in there, and that's essentially the only thing that's going to keep the economy on track.
alan cut greenspan guess inflation last point quarter rate seeing
I think (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan has made it all but official, we'll get another rate cut in June, but my guess is a quarter point rate cut, principally because of what we're seeing on the inflation report. The CPI and PPI have been trending up over the last two years.
convincing early expect half improvement indicate labor market neutral next numbers production risks second suspect
I suspect they will not have a neutral bias; they will indicate risks are on the downside. I think we will, on the production side, see better numbers in the second half of this year, but I don't expect any convincing improvement in the labor market before early next year.