Vince Farrell
Vince Farrell
fed financial interest months moves rates stocks tend work
Financial stocks tend to do well when interest rates are being lowered. Interest rate moves by the Fed take about 12 months before they work their way through the economy.
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I think the Fed is done hiking, but this economy has shown great resilience, so it's far too early to call for a decline in interest rates. I think the Fed's out of the picture for now.
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I think what really triggered the rally was the surprise cut by (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan in interest rates. But earnings have been good enough to continue the rally. Now the concern going forward is: Can earnings grow in 1999.
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I like the fact that it's almost done. They are finally doing something but for seven years, the Japanese have not gotten it.
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I like financial stocks, but not banks, ... As a rule you have to be very cautious, because if the economy is softening, you don't know the extent of the loan loss reserves they're going to have to ante up for loans that go bad in a soft economy.
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This is a very difficult task they're taken on, and I don't think you can expect them to turn the ship around too quickly.
looking year
I'm very optimistic, looking out a year or two.
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No matter what happens (incoming AOL CEO Richard) Parsons and gang are going to concentrate on calming market expectations. Period.
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The volatility is going to drive us crazy going forward. So tighten your seat belt.
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We've been building to this for some time. The economy is in a slowdown but it's not in a terrible situation.
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as go Intel's gross margins, so goes Intel's stock price.
bottom earnings line
The bottom line is earnings will be good.
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AIG trades at a market multiple, and it is indeed the best insurance company in the world, in my opinion. But financial stocks rarely, if ever, trade at market multiples.
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You're not going to get rich by Tuesday, it's going to take a long time, ... Don't quit your day job and don't expose yourself to levels of risk you can't tolerate.