Vince Farrell
Vince Farrell
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What the stock market is telling you is that the economy and corporate profits are going to recover sooner than thought.
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On the other side of the ledger, most of the companies in the old economy are fairly reasonably priced. So, a couple of weeks ago we started to see a shift. First, the energy stocks did somewhat better. Then, the pharmaceutical stocks had quite a run. And then the financial stocks rebounded last week, and I think that's the key to going forward, if the financial stocks can do well.
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We've been building to this for some time. The economy is in a slowdown but it's not in a terrible situation.
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I think the Fed is done hiking, but this economy has shown great resilience, so it's far too early to call for a decline in interest rates. I think the Fed's out of the picture for now.
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I like financial stocks, but not banks, ... As a rule you have to be very cautious, because if the economy is softening, you don't know the extent of the loan loss reserves they're going to have to ante up for loans that go bad in a soft economy.
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The economy looks good. Greenspan told us that.
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All the bad news is not out yet, and I don't know if we're going to have another round of estimate reductions because the economy seems to be falling away far faster than any of us would expect.
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Overall, my guess is this is a rally in a bear market. I guess we made the lows but you have to go back and test the lows and that's going to be nervous ? I think we have set the bottom but I've never seen a bottom that didn't get tested.
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I think today, at worst, the Fed might tilt towards a tightening. But if they don't, if they keep policy unchanged, I would expect you would see . . . the bond market should rally significantly too.
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I think they should be very, very cautious. There's no rush but if you have some cash, now is the time buy selectively, ... I believe we're going to have a very quiet August but there's an old rule: Never sell short a dull market because you usually get pretty good rallies.
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I think there is an era of optimism that pervades the financial community in the United States. There's just this feeling that stocks are going to go up, and up, and up.
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I was really encouraged by yesterday's move. I don't know about the average - the average is in the process of bottoming - but it may well be that the average can kind of bottom out, individual stocks are going to go off on their own, up or down.
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I was really encouraged by yesterday's move, ... I don't know about the average - the average is in the process of bottoming - but it may well be that the average can kind of bottom out, individual stocks are going to go off on their own, up or down.
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Most of the exploratory dollars are going to go to the great big prospects. And I think this will really impact the oil service companies' ability to continue their profit growth.