Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
activity balance continued declines fed further helped high housing labor last likely markets mortgage rates relatively rising robust sustain
With last week's Fed tightening, mortgage rates have continued to rise, so that further declines in housing activity are likely over the balance of the year. Nevertheless, robust labor markets and rising incomes have helped sustain housing at a relatively high level.
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While the auto sector appears to have corrected its inventory overhang, other sectors have not been nearly as successful, particularly high tech, ... As business sales slow, it will be even more difficult to bring inventories into line.
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While a portion of this strength is due to unseasonably mild winter weather, it is obvious that higher interest rates are, so far, having little dampening impact on construction.
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Retail sales have slowed over the last six months in response to the slower pace of job creation, higher rates, and increased volatility in the stock market. Indeed, in the past two years there has been tight relationship between the Nasdaq and retail spending, suggesting further spending weakness in coming months.
although declines drop few further gradually higher hints likely maximum output period rate ratio sales weakness
There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish.
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While some of the decline was related to the effects of Hurricane Floyd, the fact that all four regions fell suggests that higher mortgage rates are also having a constraining effect.
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Consumer optimism climbed higher in December after soaring in November. This followed huge back-to-back declines in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the associated surge in energy prices.
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It's another straw on the camel's back toward higher rates, ... but it isn't the straw that breaks the camel's back.
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The positive influence of tax rebate checks and lower energy prices is being overwhelmed by the adverse impact of highly noticeable layoff announcements and the turmoil in the stock market,
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We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
activity although buying consumer high home less longer relatively remains
Although home buying remains at relatively high levels, and though no longer robust, refinancing activity has slumped. Less refinancing activity should dampen consumer spending.
activity although buying consumer high home less longer relatively remains
Although home buying remains at relatively high levels, although no longer robust, refinancing activity has slumped. Less refinancing activity should dampen consumer spending.
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Although higher interest rates appear to have begun to have a negative impact on housing activity and consumer spending, sturdy domestic demand and improving international economies have generated an acceleration in manufacturing activity.
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Despite rising interest rates and higher energy costs, the consumer remains remarkably resilient.