Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
interest lower outlook providing rates support
Only lower interest rates are providing any support at the moment, ... The outlook is still worrisome.
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Despite this gain the outlook is still for sluggish growth over the next six months,
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Inflation is sufficiently low and tame -- and the economic outlook is sufficiently uncertain -- to be of little concern to the Fed at present.
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The budget outlook has improved slightly so far this fiscal year, largely during to still robust tax receipts.
above boost current economic estimate growth help overall
This will help boost overall economic growth to above 4 percent; our current (third-quarter) estimate is 4.5.
although declines drop few further gradually higher hints likely maximum output period rate ratio sales weakness
There are a few tentative hints -- higher new orders, a drop in the inventory-to-sales ratio -- that the period of maximum weakness has likely passed. Although further declines in output are anticipated, the rate of decline should gradually diminish.
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With employment gains non-existent, income growth has slowed. As households also become more judicious in taking on more debt, consumer spending will remain soft.
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This relative stability has been remarkable given the ebbs and flows in job creation, the equity markets, the conflict in Iraq, the election campaign, interest rates and gasoline prices.
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There is a clear improving trend in orders which provides support for the recovering manufacturing sector, ... Although some of the inventory building that occurred was likely Y2K related and will be reversed in the new year, the acceleration of both shipments and backlogs suggests that the manufacturing recovery has substantial staying power.
creation job layoffs
With a longer-term view, layoffs have accelerated, job creation has slowed, and joblessness has increased.
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While good gains in productivity are economically favorable, it is not a good situation when this occurs because labor input is declining more rapidly than output.
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This was the first time that the January budget has been in deficit since 1992.
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While this will not force the Fed's hand at this week's meeting, an August tightening remains a real possibility.
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While these data will be welcome by the (Fed), two key questions remain. Will the second quarter spending slow down extend through the rest of the year? Economic fundamentals suggest they will. And will the spending slowdown be sufficient to relieve pressure on labor markets and inflation? At this point, that is still an open question.