Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
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Despite a robust economy and tight labor markets, inflation is still low and steady. These data provide some relief for the Federal Open Market Committee.
absence activity consumer declines economic energy expect federal further higher housing inflation interest next quarters rates several slow spending welcomed
We still expect economic activity to slow over the next several quarters as consumer spending slows further and housing declines more because of higher interest rates and energy costs. The absence of inflation will be welcomed at the Federal Reserve.
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Huge swings in energy and motor vehicle prices have masked a sharp retreat in core producer inflation over the past 6 months.
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Clearly, the best news on inflation is past. These data show that households were spending aggressively last year and that there is a great deal of spending momentum coming into 2000. The Fed needs to tighten now, and they will.
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In an environment of slower growth, steady job creation, weaker productivity gains, and modestly rising inflation that we envision for 2005, the FOMC will continue to lift its target federal funds rate.
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Inflation is sufficiently low and tame -- and the economic outlook is sufficiently uncertain -- to be of little concern to the Fed at present.
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With last week's Fed tightening, mortgage rates have continued to rise, so that further declines in housing activity are likely over the balance of the year. Nevertheless, robust labor markets and rising incomes have helped sustain housing at a relatively high level.
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The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks seem to have had little impact on the factory sector so far. However, many industries have already reported further production cuts as demand has waned. A more substantial contraction is expected next month.
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The sharp slowing in domestic demand has dramatically reduced imports. Weakening economic activity in our major trading partners has significantly reduced the foreign demand for American-made products.
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These data suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to bleed. Lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus and declining energy costs have not yet made any difference to this part of the economy.
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These data suggest that a manufacturing turnaround has not yet arrived.
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These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but that a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth.
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These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth,
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These data provide some encouraging news for the factory sector, as unwanted inventories are being worked off and shipments have bounced.