Steven Wood
Steven Wood
Steven Woodwas an Australian sprint canoeist and marathon canoeist who competed in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Competing in two Summer Olympics, he won a bronze medal in the K-4 1000 m event at Barcelona in 1992...
durable factory goods growth indicate pace quite reports sector signals slowing suggest type
The signals in the manufacturing sector have become quite mixed. The diffusion indices suggest a slowing pace of growth while the factory and durable goods reports indicate an acceleration. In the past, when this type of divergence has occurred, the diffusion indices have usually been the better indicator.
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Labor markets are deteriorating quickly in the wake of the terrorist attacks on September 11. The economy was quite weak before the attacks, which have accelerated the pace of layoffs. As layoffs spiral higher, hiring activity has stopped, giving a strong upward push to joblessness.
although continue data economy employment growth income output quite slower slowing transition trends turn underlying volatile
Slower output and employment growth is dampening real income gains, which in turn is slowing spending, ... Although the monthly data continue to be quite volatile during this transition period, the underlying trends are unmistakable -- the economy is slowing from its torrid pace.
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Housing activity remains quite robust despite the slowing economy, decline in jobs, and faltering stock market.
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The level of economic optimism is still quite high, especially given the continued sluggishness in the economy, rising joblessness, corporate profits warnings and equity market volatility,
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Increased demand in expanding economies abroad and continued robust conditions at home support the production outlook, given the low inventory environment. The Fed is sure to view the economy as expanding at too fast a pace now that manufacturing is coming back and consumption remains quite strong.
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With last week's Fed tightening, mortgage rates have continued to rise, so that further declines in housing activity are likely over the balance of the year. Nevertheless, robust labor markets and rising incomes have helped sustain housing at a relatively high level.
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The Sept. 11 terrorist attacks seem to have had little impact on the factory sector so far. However, many industries have already reported further production cuts as demand has waned. A more substantial contraction is expected next month.
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The sharp slowing in domestic demand has dramatically reduced imports. Weakening economic activity in our major trading partners has significantly reduced the foreign demand for American-made products.
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These data suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to bleed. Lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus and declining energy costs have not yet made any difference to this part of the economy.
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These data suggest that a manufacturing turnaround has not yet arrived.
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These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but that a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth.
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These data suggest that a bottoming in economic activity is taking place, but a bit more inventory adjustment is needed to insure a re-acceleration in growth,
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These data provide some encouraging news for the factory sector, as unwanted inventories are being worked off and shipments have bounced.