Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
billion build companies declines demand growth inventory per quarter rate second third
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.
basis begun economic entire freeing generally growth high less living low periods productive resources rising stronger surprise
Freeing up less productive resources by accomplishing more with less is the entire basis for rising living standards. It shouldn't come as a surprise that stronger periods of economic growth have generally begun during periods of high unemployment, not low unemployment.
benchmark decline fit future household measure perfect seen
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.
advantages large periods slump
After periods of a large slump in employment, there may be advantages to canvassing homes,
activity building conditions early employment gain growth judging last outlook period start strong unlikely unusually warm weather winter
Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.
estimates ugly
Estimates have to come down. We're in for an ugly preannouncement season.
coming energy headline high inflation slow
Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
confidence coverage effect emotional hurricane impact katrina low month news seeing september short spending television wake
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
business decisions flat government growing near neither nor quarter spending term third weak
Consumption is growing, government outlays are growing and the third quarter will look very strong. But going forward, business spending is flat and decisions are being deferred. That can keep us weak for the near term -- neither contracting nor expanding.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
despair looks reason utter
There's no reason for utter despair, but this looks like a big exaggeration.
crude forecasts gas move oil pose prices recession
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures.