Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
assuming counted department gave guidance held job labor orleans workers
The Labor Department gave guidance that workers held on payrolls would be counted as employed, even if they couldn't be on the job. Just assuming that everyone in New Orleans was out of a job was not the way to go.
below data decent fell june labor
If you look at labor demand, you should be getting a decent trend. It was only June data that fell below that trend.
demand employment growth heading labor seen stays strong towards year
If demand stays strong and productivity growth slows considerably, this could be a year that could be seen as heading towards traditional overheating of the labor market, with big employment gains,
estimates ugly
Estimates have to come down. We're in for an ugly preannouncement season.
coming energy headline high inflation slow
Even if energy hangs out at these historically high levels, headline inflation should slow down in the coming year.
beneath demand faster moving production rate
Beneath the surface, production and inventory, here and abroad, are moving up faster than the rate of demand growth,
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
confidence coverage effect emotional hurricane impact katrina low month news seeing september short spending television wake
Seeing a two-year low in confidence in the wake of Hurricane Katrina isn't that surprising. The news in the month of September has been terrible. The television coverage and the emotional impact of the story has a big effect on confidence in the short run. But spending has been inconsistent with these confidence numbers.
business decisions flat government growing near neither nor quarter spending term third weak
Consumption is growing, government outlays are growing and the third quarter will look very strong. But going forward, business spending is flat and decisions are being deferred. That can keep us weak for the near term -- neither contracting nor expanding.
everywhere fact improvement notion spending tech
This notion that there's just too much tech everywhere contrasts with the fact that there's actually been a spending improvement,
despair looks reason utter
There's no reason for utter despair, but this looks like a big exaggeration.
billion build companies declines demand growth inventory per quarter rate second third
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.
crude forecasts gas move oil pose prices recession
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures.
gas pose prices
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.