Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
consumer economy energy focused housing increases itself key market sharp stay sustain whether
It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.
both chinese danger debate engines global last producer slow three whether
For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
area asia battered bruised economy effect extent global keeping lean left region resilience sars source
Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.
again angst both cannot cases certainly common early experience gains german germany pain worker
Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.
broader case coming decade economic fed global policy recovery threat unlike view
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
both chinese miracle threat viewed
Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.
dramatic felt huge
It won't be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.
consumer global hardly problem rest taken
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy.
consumers energy good higher hit shocks stagnant wages
Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,