Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
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An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
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Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
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Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
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The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
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There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.
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This is the year to watch out carefully for the end of the great American spending binge.
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It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
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The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.
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The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
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The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.
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That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.
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You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.
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Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.
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When he leaves ... he will take away 18 years of confidence the markets have invested in him.