Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
ability bad china countries currency dependent forcing front move moving speed
China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
confidence invested leaves markets
When he leaves ... he will take away 18 years of confidence the markets have invested in him.
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
compared expansion growth past weak
Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.
knew labor united
For the United States, it's the end of labor as we once knew it.
accounting broader close component economy global hits large measures percent trade
Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.
china economic trouble
If that's the economic model, China is in trouble.
account begin believe currency current essential global good reason sharp value
There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,
gone
We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.
accepted alignment appear avoid balanced banking central closer dependence excess moving order pitfalls practice remarks
Greenspan's remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank should do in order to avoid the pitfalls of excess dependence on overvalued assets.
area asia battered bruised economy effect extent global keeping lean left region resilience sars source
Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.
again angst both cannot cases certainly common early experience gains german germany pain worker
Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.