Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
bill china closes deficit divert economy imposition portion simply steep trade
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.
great loved mine miss
Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.
country gets leadership outside senior
China's senior leadership gets it while many outside the country do not.
ability bad china countries currency dependent forcing front move moving speed
China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
recession
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.
damage dangerous degree global surprise
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
civil dime gets job received rights sit victim
Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
coming downside months past risks several time warning
It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
consumers energy good higher hit shocks stagnant wages
Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
dramatic felt huge
It won't be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.