Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
confidence early markets prepared risk tenure
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
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The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.
bit bust economy global link property rust sign weakest
There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.
carefully great spending watch year
This is the year to watch out carefully for the end of the great American spending binge.
consumer global hardly problem rest taken
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy.
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It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
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Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
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The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
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The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.
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For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.
bad biggest continue despite economy far
I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.
cure disease prevail until war
You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.
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The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.
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The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.