Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
china economic trouble
If that's the economic model, China is in trouble.
accepted alignment appear avoid balanced banking central closer dependence excess moving order pitfalls practice remarks
Greenspan's remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank should do in order to avoid the pitfalls of excess dependence on overvalued assets.
account begin believe currency current essential global good reason sharp value
There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.
both chinese miracle threat viewed
Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.
account address basis capital chinese commitment currency expect fully officials open tension waver
I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility,
betrayed david ignored medical needs
He's the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.
fed regard staying
By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.
both chinese danger debate engines global last producer slow three whether
For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.
bad biggest continue despite economy far
I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.
asset bubble burst costs far outweigh perils
In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession,
account adjustment case classic current dollar grows higher interest lead renewed term
The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.
cannot deficit economy global major property risk thinking
The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.