Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
broader case coming decade economic fed global policy recovery threat unlike view
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
bubble great property spending
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.
betrayed david ignored medical needs
He's the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.
fed regard staying
By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.
both chinese miracle threat viewed
Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.
account address basis capital chinese commitment currency expect fully officials open tension waver
I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility,
asset bubble burst costs far outweigh perils
In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession,
consumer economy energy focused housing increases itself key market sharp stay sustain whether
It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.
fall global growth nature protracted reason shoe stress
That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.
business cycle goods modern resulting shock war
An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
china currency debate europe looks partner stayed strategic threat
Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
dramatic felt huge
It won't be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.