Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
bubble great property spending
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.
civil dime gets job received rights sit victim
Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
recession
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.
damage dangerous degree global surprise
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
knew labor united
For the United States, it's the end of labor as we once knew it.
accounting broader close component economy global hits large measures percent trade
Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.
account begin believe currency current essential global good reason sharp value
There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,
gone
We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.
bill china closes deficit divert economy imposition portion simply steep trade
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.
adverse capital china consequences global markets opening pace risk run
I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.