Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
consumer global hardly problem rest taken
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy.
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It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.
confidence invested leaves markets
When he leaves ... he will take away 18 years of confidence the markets have invested in him.
bubble great property spending
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.
area asia battered bruised economy effect extent global keeping lean left region resilience sars source
Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.
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That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.
cure disease prevail until war
You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.
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There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.
carefully great spending watch year
This is the year to watch out carefully for the end of the great American spending binge.
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The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
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For the United States, it's the end of labor as we once knew it.
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Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.