Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
bill china closes deficit divert economy imposition portion simply steep trade
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.
accounting broader close component economy global hits large measures percent trade
Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.
age age-and-aging comfort drawn false internet quality states turn ubiquitous united
The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.
confidence early markets prepared risk tenure
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
adjusted data explaining fall normal recent return strength weather
The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.
business cycle goods modern resulting shock war
An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
china currency debate europe looks partner stayed strategic threat
Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
borrowing endgame last needs risks seemed system unstable
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
global oil outright prospects recession shock
As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
broader case coming decade economic fed global policy recovery threat unlike view
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
gone
We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.