Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
global oil outright prospects recession shock
As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
business cycle goods modern resulting shock war
An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
consumers energy good higher hit shocks stagnant wages
Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
recession
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.
damage dangerous degree global surprise
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
civil dime gets job received rights sit victim
Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
borrowing endgame last needs risks seemed system unstable
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
adverse capital china consequences global markets opening pace risk run
I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.
economy feeling prognosis time
I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.
great loved mine miss
Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.