Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.
ability bad china countries currency dependent forcing front move moving speed
China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
both chinese miracle threat viewed
Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.
consumer economy energy focused housing increases itself key market sharp stay sustain whether
It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.
dramatic felt huge
It won't be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.
consumer global hardly problem rest taken
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy.
business cycle goods modern resulting shock war
An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
china currency debate europe looks partner stayed strategic threat
Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
borrowing endgame last needs risks seemed system unstable
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
global oil outright prospects recession shock
As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
age age-and-aging comfort drawn false internet quality states turn ubiquitous united
The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.
confidence early markets prepared risk tenure
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
adjusted data explaining fall normal recent return strength weather
The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.