Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
china currency debate europe looks partner stayed strategic threat
Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
china expect hard landing past proved seems three west
The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
bill china closes deficit divert economy imposition portion simply steep trade
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.
adverse capital china consequences global markets opening pace risk run
I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.
ability bad china countries currency dependent forcing front move moving speed
China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
china economic trouble
If that's the economic model, China is in trouble.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
area asia battered bruised economy effect extent global keeping lean left region resilience sars source
Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.
again angst both cannot cases certainly common early experience gains german germany pain worker
Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.
broader case coming decade economic fed global policy recovery threat unlike view
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
both chinese miracle threat viewed
Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.