Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
age age-and-aging comfort drawn false internet quality states turn ubiquitous united
The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.
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The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
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The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.
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An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
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Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
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Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
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As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
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Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
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Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
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We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.
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Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.
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Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.
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I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.
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I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.