Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
cent continue fed feels funds likely moved neutral overnight per policy raise rates until
My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend.
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We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway.
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This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.
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This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out. It does, however, hint in that direction.
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There has obviously been quite a bit of dissension as to the governmental policies, the slashing in fiscal expenditure, potential tax increases, as well as the astronomical increases in interest rates.
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U.S. consumers are feeling the benefits of higher incomes and are spending more to reflect their good moods, ... Buoyed by record confidence, income growth, and a super-tight jobs market, the consumer is showing no signs of slowing and should continue to propel the U.S. economy.
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Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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While this report yielded few surprises, it simply highlights the relentless strength in the economy and provides more ammunition for the Fed to continue tightening policy,
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While the rise in core prices is a bit uncomfortably high, this stand-alone report is not evidence that soaring energy prices are feeding into other prices.
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.
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There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.
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I do not want to generate fear unnecessarily,
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October and November ... sales each registered substantial gains (excluding autos), pointing to a reasonable fourth-quarter consumer spending figure when all is said and done.
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Bearing in mind that the Fed wants higher inflation, the news is not unwelcome. And the market will remain firmly in the camp that the Fed will not tighten soon, ... Nevertheless, the risks from the PPI are easy to see and look real in light of the big decline of the dollar and rise in import costs that preceded them.