Sherry Cooper
Sherry Cooper
Sherry S. Cooperis a Canadian-American economist. Cooper is currently Chief Economist for Dominion Lending Centres. She was Executive Vice-President and Chief Economist of BMO Financial Group, with responsibilities for economic forecasting and risk assessment. She comments regularly in the press on financial issues...
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There is no longer a shadow of doubt that the U.S. economy is downshifting rapidly; the only question is how deep the slowdown goes, ... We do not expect to see recession in 2001, but we certainly expect to see significantly slower growth with continued moderating inflation.
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However, there are deepening questions as to how far they will go beyond that point, especially given the looming hit to growth from the spike in oil and gas prices and the renewed Canadian dollar rise.
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We wouldn't want everyone to go running out and dump all their investments and bury cash in their mattresses, because it would only accelerate the crisis - at least the financial crisis. But I don't believe people would do that anyway.
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This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come.
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This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out. It does, however, hint in that direction.
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There has obviously been quite a bit of dissension as to the governmental policies, the slashing in fiscal expenditure, potential tax increases, as well as the astronomical increases in interest rates.
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U.S. consumers are feeling the benefits of higher incomes and are spending more to reflect their good moods, ... Buoyed by record confidence, income growth, and a super-tight jobs market, the consumer is showing no signs of slowing and should continue to propel the U.S. economy.
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Birth rates would plunge and the average age of the population would increase significantly.
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While this report yielded few surprises, it simply highlights the relentless strength in the economy and provides more ammunition for the Fed to continue tightening policy,
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While the rise in core prices is a bit uncomfortably high, this stand-alone report is not evidence that soaring energy prices are feeding into other prices.
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Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.
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There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street. The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.
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I do not want to generate fear unnecessarily,
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October and November ... sales each registered substantial gains (excluding autos), pointing to a reasonable fourth-quarter consumer spending figure when all is said and done.