Rory Robertson
Rory Robertson
bit fed feeling investors kicking markets might nervous pushing saying shorts sure worse
I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.
badly bubble effects equity far fed history holding job market past tend trying
The Fed is trying to do what it can, but the history of the past 200 years is that big booms tend to end badly -- big equity market booms in particular. The Fed so far has done a magnificent job of holding the show together, but we don't know what effects of the bubble are still in the pipeline.
downside market risk yield
Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in May/June, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.
bond breeding domestic fact gross inflation low market modest people pressure prints product quite steady weight
If gross domestic product prints 2.75 or 3 percent, it's broadly where the market is. People put very little weight on the fact that any pressure on inflation in the U.S. is quite modest and that's breeding low and steady bond yields.
explicit fed markets pause
The markets were a little disappointed that the Fed didn't give any explicit hint that a pause is around the corner.
coming dream economy extended inclined justify low markets period rates strong understand
The markets are coming to understand that policymakers will be inclined to keep rates very low for an extended period -- the FOMC (Fed rate-setting committee) can still only dream that the economy will be strong enough in 2002 to justify a rate hike.
australia interest lesson market rates relatively stay
The lesson from Australia is, as long as interest rates stay relatively low, the market will cool, not crash.
core cut economy fed forced front further inflation issue jobs likely ongoing people rates skeptical talking terrific ultimately
The Fed ultimately will be forced to cut rates further because we have had this ongoing issue of sub-par growth, disappointment on the jobs front and core inflation edging lower. People are talking about a terrific snap-back in the economy after the war, but I'm skeptical we're likely to see it.
bank door interest leaves official open raise rates rather reserve sooner
It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.
economy playing scenario simply
At this stage, the worst-case scenario for the US economy post-Katrina simply is not playing out.
factors maintained means next number several
This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.
local looks period tide turning
After a long period of inactivity, the tide looks to be turning on the local interest-rate front.
couple deflation driving economic economy fed growing next pace prices service wage wages
The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.
backed bargain consumers drop economy equity helped homes interest lower meant mortgage rates taking tap wealth
The thing that helped the economy so much was a drop in interest rates, which meant lower mortgage rates, which meant consumers have been able to tap the wealth in their homes by refinancing and taking equity out of their homes. With rates having backed up so sharply, refinancing is not such a bargain any more.