Rory Robertson
Rory Robertson
beyond clear inflation minimal percent players pressures value year
It's very clear that there's minimal inflation pressures in the U.S. beyond the oil-price pressures. A lot of fundamental players will see value in the 10- year Treasuries at 4.8 percent levels.
confidence definitely dip double early great month people saying shortage
It's too early to say with great confidence that things are definitely getting worse, but if we get another month or two of payrolls declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.
core fed full gains inflation level lost lower lowest means measure payroll percent preferred progress requires run since six towards
Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.
anxious bit clearly conditions dramatic fed financial quite rebound six weeks yields
Financial conditions clearly are quite a bit tighter than they were six weeks ago. I'd be dumbfounded if the Fed was not anxious about this dramatic rebound in yields dampening the rebound in the pipeline.
gradual improvement painfully rate
There is a very gradual improvement, but the rate of improvement is painfully slow.
falling feed giving helpful lower oil prices quite rising stimulus terms
Rising oil prices are quite unhelpful, and falling prices are quite helpful in terms of giving stimulus to the economy. Lower prices feed through pretty well to everyone immediately.
economy happened mention past rates seven
I think the back-up in rates should rate a mention -- it's the most significant thing that's happened to the economy in the past seven weeks.
basis fed points reflect statement worried
I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.
downside market risk yield
Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in May/June, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.
bond breeding domestic fact gross inflation low market modest people pressure prints product quite steady weight
If gross domestic product prints 2.75 or 3 percent, it's broadly where the market is. People put very little weight on the fact that any pressure on inflation in the U.S. is quite modest and that's breeding low and steady bond yields.
current edge energy fed helps imagine inflation intense investors less pressure prices reduce risk seeing value worried
The inflation risk is less intense than many would imagine and, as energy prices edge lower, some investors are seeing value at current yields. It helps reduce the pressure the Fed has been worried about.
explicit fed markets pause
The markets were a little disappointed that the Fed didn't give any explicit hint that a pause is around the corner.
coming dream economy extended inclined justify low markets period rates strong understand
The markets are coming to understand that policymakers will be inclined to keep rates very low for an extended period -- the FOMC (Fed rate-setting committee) can still only dream that the economy will be strong enough in 2002 to justify a rate hike.
actual conditions financial good growth seen turn
All the good growth is in the forecasts, in the idea that financial conditions have eased. But we've seen that doesn't always turn into actual good growth.