Rory Robertson
Rory Robertson
core cut economy fed forced front further inflation issue jobs likely ongoing people rates skeptical talking terrific ultimately
The Fed ultimately will be forced to cut rates further because we have had this ongoing issue of sub-par growth, disappointment on the jobs front and core inflation edging lower. People are talking about a terrific snap-back in the economy after the war, but I'm skeptical we're likely to see it.
bit fed feeling investors kicking markets might nervous pushing saying shorts sure worse
I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.
badly bubble effects equity far fed history holding job market past tend trying
The Fed is trying to do what it can, but the history of the past 200 years is that big booms tend to end badly -- big equity market booms in particular. The Fed so far has done a magnificent job of holding the show together, but we don't know what effects of the bubble are still in the pipeline.
couple deflation driving economic economy fed growing next pace prices service wage wages
The thing driving service prices is wage growth, and after two years of sub-par economic growth, we've got wages decelerating. If the Fed doesn't get the economy growing at an above-trend pace in the next couple of years, deflation will arise.
assumption bond economy fairly fed hike labor march might particular perception perhaps quite rates yields
There's a perception that the economy is actually doing quite well, in particular the labor market. It's a fairly straightforward assumption the Fed would want to hike rates in March and perhaps in May. You might see bond yields go higher.
core fed full gains inflation level lost lower lowest means measure payroll percent preferred progress requires run since six towards
Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.
anxious bit clearly conditions dramatic fed financial quite rebound six weeks yields
Financial conditions clearly are quite a bit tighter than they were six weeks ago. I'd be dumbfounded if the Fed was not anxious about this dramatic rebound in yields dampening the rebound in the pipeline.
basis fed points reflect statement worried
I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.
current edge energy fed helps imagine inflation intense investors less pressure prices reduce risk seeing value worried
The inflation risk is less intense than many would imagine and, as energy prices edge lower, some investors are seeing value at current yields. It helps reduce the pressure the Fed has been worried about.
explicit fed markets pause
The markets were a little disappointed that the Fed didn't give any explicit hint that a pause is around the corner.
admitting cutting fed hoping longer sitting
The longer the Fed drags this out without cutting rates, the more they're admitting they don't have much firepower at all. They're sitting on their hands, hoping for the best.
bank door interest leaves official open raise rates rather reserve sooner
It leaves open the door for the Reserve Bank to raise official interest rates sooner rather than later.
economy playing scenario simply
At this stage, the worst-case scenario for the US economy post-Katrina simply is not playing out.
factors maintained means next number several
This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.