Rory Robertson
Rory Robertson
anxious bit clearly conditions dramatic fed financial quite rebound six weeks yields
Financial conditions clearly are quite a bit tighter than they were six weeks ago. I'd be dumbfounded if the Fed was not anxious about this dramatic rebound in yields dampening the rebound in the pipeline.
bit fed feeling investors kicking markets might nervous pushing saying shorts sure worse
I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.
core fed full gains inflation level lost lower lowest means measure payroll percent preferred progress requires run since six towards
Unemployment at 6 percent means the Fed has just lost six full years of progress towards lower unemployment in just six quarters. With its preferred measure of core inflation at the lowest level since the 1960s, the Fed probably requires a run of monthly payroll gains of 150,000 to 200,000 before it will feel any real need to tighten.
factors maintained means next number several
This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.
assumption bond continue entering fact fall falling next people possible recession recovery stock stronger watching year yields
If we hadn't had a recession a year ago, and we were watching the fall in employment, a stalling manufacturing sector, falling bond yields and falling stock prices, many people would think we were entering a recession. There's an assumption that the recovery will continue and get stronger next year, when in fact it's possible the economy's tipping over again.
skeptical time
I am skeptical that this time will be different.
ball clear core far rise rolling toward
Obviously, a big rise in the core CPI would get the ball rolling toward another hike, but it's far from clear that will be the outcome.
downside market risk yield
Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in May/June, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.
falling feed giving helpful lower oil prices quite rising stimulus terms
Rising oil prices are quite unhelpful, and falling prices are quite helpful in terms of giving stimulus to the economy. Lower prices feed through pretty well to everyone immediately.
basis fed points reflect statement worried
I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.
economy happened mention past rates seven
I think the back-up in rates should rate a mention -- it's the most significant thing that's happened to the economy in the past seven weeks.
gradual improvement painfully rate
There is a very gradual improvement, but the rate of improvement is painfully slow.
cash critical dropped hands limit limiting mortgage rates rise sharp threatens
The sharp rise in mortgage rates that is now under way threatens to limit the refinancing boom, limiting the cash that will be dropped into U.S. consumers' hands during the critical holiday-shopping season.
economy playing scenario simply
At this stage, the worst-case scenario for the US economy post-Katrina simply is not playing out.